Gartner Predicts AI‑Enabled PCs Will Become Norm by 2029 Amid Growing Market Share
Key Points
- Gartner expects AI PCs to become the norm by 2029.
- AI‑enabled computers projected to hold 31% of the global PC market by 2025 (≈77.8 million units).
- Market share has doubled since 2024, with laptops outpacing desktops.
- Tariffs have introduced supply‑chain uncertainty but are viewed as a temporary headwind.
- Canalys reports AI PCs reached 23% market share in Q4 2024, up from 17% annual average.
- Apple’s M‑series devices are considered AI‑capable, with price drops expanding access.
- Gartner predicts multiple small language models will run locally on AI PCs by end‑2026.
Gartner forecasts that AI‑capable personal computers will become the standard by 2029, with the segment projected to capture nearly one‑third of the global PC market by the end of 2025. The share has already doubled since 2024, driven by strong demand for AI‑enabled laptops and falling hardware prices. While recent tariffs have introduced supply‑chain uncertainty, analysts expect continued growth, and Gartner anticipates multiple small language models running locally on AI PCs by 2026.
AI PCs Poised to Become Mainstream
Gartner’s senior analysts say AI‑enabled personal computers will be "the norm" across workplaces and homes by 2029. The firm projects that AI PCs will comprise nearly one‑third of the global PC market—31 percent—by the close of 2025, representing an estimated 77.8 million units shipped.
Rapid Share Gains and Device Preferences
Market share for AI‑capable machines has already doubled since 2024, rising from 15.6 percent to 31 percent. Laptops dominate the segment, with AI‑enabled laptops holding more than double the share of AI desktops. Gartner also foresees AI PCs capturing a 55 percent share of the market next year, equivalent to 143 million units.
Tariff Pressures and Supply‑Chain Uncertainty
Geopolitical‑induced tariffs have slowed adoption somewhat, but analysts suggest the impact may be temporary. Gartner senior director Ranjit Atwal notes users will invest in AI PCs to stay prepared for expanding edge AI integration. Canalys principal analyst Ben Yeh adds that evolving tariff policies continue to reshape global PC supply chains, creating uncertainty for market recovery.
Canalys Data Confirms Momentum
Separate research from Canalys shows AI‑capable PCs reached a 23 percent market share in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from a 17 percent full‑year average. The data underscores accelerating consumer and enterprise interest in AI‑ready hardware.
Apple’s M‑Series and Price Democratization
Apple’s M‑series computers are cited as examples of AI‑capable devices. With many models now up to five years old, prices have fallen, broadening access to powerful AI‑ready machines for a wider audience.
Future Capabilities: Local Language Models
Looking ahead, Gartner predicts that by the end of 2026 AI PCs will be able to run multiple small language models locally, a capability that was nonexistent in 2023. This development is expected to further embed AI functionality into everyday computing‑hardware ecosystems.
Outlook
Despite short‑term tariff headwinds, the convergence of falling prices, expanding AI workloads, and growing device adoption points to a robust trajectory for AI PCs. Analysts anticipate continued market expansion, with AI‑enabled laptops leading the charge and new on‑device AI capabilities reshaping user experiences across both consumer and enterprise segments.